By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY
The nation will be more energy independent in the future as it boosts its production of oil, natural gas and renewable power such as solar and wind, the U.S. government predicted Monday.
Domestic crude oil production is expected to jump more than 20% in the coming decade, from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.7 million in 2020 — a level not seen since 1994, says an annual forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Much of that growth comes from tight oil, forced out from shale rock in North Dakota‘s Bakken area.
Also, U.S. production of natural gas is projected to increase so much that it will exceed consumption early in the next decade. Renewables will take off, too, accounting for 16% of the U.S. electric supply in 2025 — up from 10% today.
As a result, net imports of energy to the U.S. will account for 13% of total consumption in 2035, down from 22% in 2010.
The report comes within a week of the Obama administration’s rejection of the 1,700-mile Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry tar sands from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries.
The U.S. will still depend on oil imports from the Persian Gulf, half of which Keystone XL could have replaced, says Rayola Dougher of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group.
Daniel Weiss of the Center for American Progress, a think tank opposed to Keystone, says the report shows that the U.S. does not need the pipeline.
The report says U.S. demand for energy will continue to increase but at a slower pace because of efficiency advances. It projects the nation’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will remain below 2005 levels for the next 25 years.
READ MORE: http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2012-01-23/oil-production/52759732/1
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With oil sands and shale oil, not only are gasoline prices unlikely to fall under $3 but this production will also not prevent OPEC to become as strong as in 1973.
- With oil sands and shale oil, oil prices are unlikely to fall under $70.
Former BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said the plentiful deep water oil resources in areas such as the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil, as well as Canada’s oil sands need an oil prices above $60-$70 to attract investors.
- There are a lot of problems with unconventional oil.
There are currently more than 170 square kilometres of tailings ponds in Alberta’s oil sands regions, the ponds are filled each day with 1.8 billion liters of toxic water.
At the same time, there are more and more earthquakes in areas where hydraulic fracturation is used.
A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck Oklahoma City in 2011, near the planned path of the Keystone XL.
In Texas, fracking a single Eagle Ford well requires as much as 13 million gallons of water.
- Even if America, Canada and Brazil can add about 3 million barrels a day in 2015, OPEC will be as strong as in 1973.
In 2015, Opec will have to produce 37 million barrels a day to meet rising demand worldwide.
As oil prices are set by supply and demand worldwide, oil prices will be more and more determined in the Middle East for years to come.
Posted by luc | January 28, 2012, 1:02 pm